Omdia (IHS)

According to Omdia, Korea regained the top position in the AMOLED market in Q2 2024, after China surpassed Korea in Q1 2024 for the first time.

Omdia says that both Samsung Display and LG Display enjoyed increased sales of high-end AMOLED displays for IT devices (laptops and tablets), and held a market share of 49.9% in Q2 2024, while Chinese OLED makers (Visionox, BOE, Everdisplay, Tianma and CSoT) held a market share of 49%.

Omdia has updated its Apple iPad and Macbook display roadmaps, with new forecasts and information about Apple's OLED adoption plans in its IT product lines. 

According to Omdia, Apple's iPad Mini will get a 8.4-inch LTPS OLED display in 2026. In 2027, Apple will also introduce OLED displays in its iPad Aid models (11-inch and 13-inch). In 2028 Apple will revamp the OLED displays in its iPad Pro models, offering a tandem architecture, polarizer-free OLED design and LTPO backplanes.

Omdia released its latest OLED market forecasts, and the company says the small/medium (1-inch to 8-inch) OLED shipments will surpass one billion for the first time in 2025. 

In the smartphone market, Omdia says that there has been significant growth, mainly driven by Chinese OLED producers (BOE, CSoT, Visionox, Tianma and Everdisplay). In addition to the growth in smartphone displays, OLED are expanding into new applications, including AR/VR and automotive displays.

Omdia estimates that shipments of OLEDs over 9-inch in size (which Omdia defines as large-area OLEDs, although most companies will refer to these sizes as medium-sized OLEDs) will increase 116.5% in 2024, and will rise a further 32.7% in 2025.

This growth is driven by increasing demand for OLED monitors, tablets and laptops.

Omdia says that Color-Filter on Encapsulation (COE) will grow to be the dominant technology in foldable OLED smartphone panels, and will replace the currently-used circular polarizers. COE adoption will grow at a 33% CAGR between 2024-2030, and by 2030 almost 90% of foldable smartphones will use COE technology, and almost 20% of all smartphone OLED panels.

The adoption of COE in OLEDs increases the panel effective brightness, which means that the display consumes less power compared to a polarizer OLED (same brightness) and also lasts longer. The color gamut is also improved. On the other hand, COE OLEDs suffer from higher reflectivity compared to polarizer OLEDs. 

According to Omdia, the price of OLED microdisplays is expected to drop rapidly in the next few years, as production capacity grows, new OLED producers join the industry,  and as wafers sizes increases as well which improves production efficiency. 

Interestingly Omdia acknowledges that new technologies are set to improve the performance of OLED microdispalys - such as tandem architectures, direct emission, and more. These technologies will increase the cost of production, and it's not clear whether Omdia takes that into account in their estimates above, or whether they assume 

Omdia says that in 2028, LTPO will overtake LTPS as the leading smartphone OLED backplane technology. By 2031, smartphone LTPO OLED panel shipments will reach 520 million units, with a 52% market share (of all smartphone OLED displays).

Omdia sees the smartphone OLED market rising in the next 10 years. In 2031, over one billion OLED smartphone panels will ship. In 2024, Omdia sees a sharp increase of 24% in smartphone OLED shipments (compared to 2023), which will surpass 800 million units. 

According to Omdia, sales of OLED panels in sizes over 9-inch (the company refers to these as Large Area Displays) will increase 124.6% in 2024. In 2023, the market contracted 25.7%, with the only exception being OLED monitor panels that grew in shipments.

In 2024, Omdia says that all application areas will see an increase in shipments - TVs, monitors, tablets and laptops. Only the company's "other" category will see a decrease in sales. In particular, tablet OLED shipments are projected to increase by 294% compared to 2023, largely due to Apple's adoption of OLEDs in the 2024 iPad Pro tablets. Laptop OLED sales will increase 152.6%, and monitors OLEDs will increase 139.9%. Finally, OLED TV panel shipments will increase 34.8%.

Omdia estimates that in 2024, OLED technology has finally overtaken LCD and now holds a market share of 53% in the smartphone display market. OLED penetration is expected to increase to 56% in Q3 2024.

Omdia further says that smartphone shipments have increased 5% in 2023 to reach 1.45 billion units, and the market will continue rising in 2024. 

Omdia estimates that growth will return to the OLED materials market after two years of slow OLED TV sales. Material sales will increase to over $2 billion in 2024, for the first time, and will continue growing to reach $2.6 billion by 2028.

Omdia sees an improvement in the utilization of LG's WOLED fabs in 2024. LGD's E4 line in Paju, for example, have rebounded to over 60% in Q1 2024, up from only 33% at the end of 2023. The company's WOLED line in Guangzhou also increased its utilization to over 50%.