The following premium article takes a look at the current markets for OLED displays - including smartphones, wearables, VR / AR, mobile PCs and TVs. We will then summarize OLED market forecasts by leading analysts.
In recent weeks, we heard very strong indicators from OLED equipment and component makers. Coherent, Orbotech, Colnatec and MagnaChip all reported significant OLED orders, and are very optimistic about the OLED market going forward.
Those suppliers report sales mostly to Korea, of course, but also to Japanese and Chinese display makers, as these new players ramp up their OLED production and begin to compete with Samsung and LGD.
AMOLED applications - phones, cars, TVs and VR headsets
There's optimism about OLED displays across many applications - first and foremost are mobile phone displays, of course, the main driver for AMOLED panels for a long time. While Samsung has been adopting OLEDs in its high-end phones for years, in 2015 the company started using AMOLEDs in its mid-range and low-end phones as well.
Following a slump in Samsung's smartphone sales, Samsung Display started to diversify its customer base, and has secured several design wins, mostly by Chinese phone makers. In recent months we have seen new OLED phones from Gionee, Meizu, Acer, HP, Vivo, Microsoft, Lenovo, ZTE, Hisense, Konka and more.
Two emerging markets for OLED displays are the wearables and VR/AR markets. OLED has some inherent advantages over LCDs for these markets. OLEDs are lighter, thinner, more efficient and can flex - which is great for the wearable market, and indeed most smart watches and fitness bands adopt OLEDs, even Apple chose a plastic-based flexible AMOLEDs for its Watch smartwatch.
VR is still a small market - but almost all VR headsets (including ones from Oculus, HTC, Sony and Samsung) use AMOLED displays due to the fast refresh rate which is considered mandatory for VR. The VR headset market is expected to grow very quickly in coming years, and I would expect most VR headsets to use AMOLED displays.
The medium-sized display (7-inch to 30-inch) market is seeing a decline in recent years. Most of these displays end up in mobile PCs (tablets, laptops and monitors) - and these devices are declining in sales for several years. But medium-size OLED adoption is just starting, and this represents a huge opportunity for OLED makers if OLEDs manage to grab a market share away from LCDs.
The main challenge with OLED adoption for PCs has traditionally been the burn-in problem, but it seems that Samsung finally managed to solve this issue, and in early 2016 several companies (including Samsung, HP, Lenovo and Dell) announced OLED laptops, laptop/tablet hybrids and even monitors. These are still high-end devices, so volumes will not be meaningful, but it's a start.
TVs are of course the largest market for displays - and here OLED is still struggling. While LG is pushing ahead with its OLED program, it is still the only OLED TV panel producer. LG Display shipped 400,000 OLED TV panels in 2015 and expects to sell around a million in 2016. The company announced ambitious expansion plans as it sees its future tied up to OLED technology.
Samsung is more hesitant, and we hear conflicting reports about the company's return to the OLED TV market. Only a few days ago Samsung Electronics' TV chief said that Samsung has no immediate plans to produce OLED TVs. Companies in China (mainly BOE Display) are developing OLED TV technologies, but it's not clear when and if production will start.
Another interesting market for OLED displays is the automotive market. In past years several car models adopted simple PMOLED displays, but it seems that the car makers are finally ready to start using OLEDs. Flexible OLEDs have some advantages here - being light, safe (no glass) and of course they can be flexed around the curved surface of the car interior. We have seen several concept cars with flexible OLEDs, and according to reports Mercedes intends to use two 12.3" FHD flexible OLEDs from LGD in future E-Class cars.
The automotive market is not very large in terms of volume (around 15 million cars are sold each year) but it's a premium market with potentially high profits. IDTechEx estimates that the OLED automotive market will grow from $150 million in 2016 to $500 million in 2018.
OLED display forecasts
In this section will summarizes the latest OLED display market forecasts from several market analysts.
First up, we have IDTechEx. The company sees the rigid (glass-based) AMOLED market reaching $22.7 billion in 2022. The flexible (plastic-based) OLED market will grow much faster - from $1.5 billion in 2015 to $3 billion in 2016 and over $16 billion in 2020.
IHS says that the lower prices of AMOLED panels will lead to rapid increase in shipments in the near future. IHS sees 395 million AMOLEDs shipped in 2016 (this is a very optimistic forecast - most analysts estimate this number at around 250 million) with revenues reaching $15 billion. Interestingly, one the fastest growing segments will be the VR and AR market - which will ship 3.6 panels in 2016.
IHS estimates that in 2014, flexible OLED shipments were only 2% of all AMOLED panel shipments. In 2015 57 million flexible AMOLED were produced, to grab a 20% share of the total AMOLED market. By 2020, flexible AMOLEDs will represent 40% of the total AMOLED market.
UBI Research estimates that the AMOLED market will reach a record $15 billion in revenues in 2016 - an increase of about 40% over 2015. Unit shipments will rise 16% to reach 270 million panels in 2016 (up from 230 million in 2015). UBI expects the AMOLED market to grow with a CAGR of 46% between 2016 and 2020, to reach $67 billion.
DisplaySearch says that the AMOLED market growth is accelerating, and the company's latest forecasts say that the market will grow from $10.3 billion in 2014 to just over $23 billion in 2022. Most of the growth will be from the OLED TV market - which will grow from $400 million (2014) to over $9 billion in 2022.
Allied Market Research estimates that the OLED market will grow at a 18.3% CAGR from 2015 to 2020, reaching $37.2 billion by 2020.
Most analysts are very optimistic about the OLED market - and the main exception is Lux Research, that estimates the OLED market at $6.2 billion in 2015, and forecasts that it will reach $15 billion in 2020 (CAGR of 19%). The OLED TV market will only reach $480 million in 2020.
As you can see the different forecasts vary by quite a bit - though everyone agrees that the OLED market will grow at a fast rate. Here's a chart that summarizes all the market forecasts we mentioned above (you can click on it to get a large image):
