IHS Markit estimates that OLED TV displays revenues will grow from $2.9 billion in 2019 to $7.5 billion in 2025. Note that IHS is looking at OLED TV display revenues and not total TV set revenues. In 2019 the market share of OLED TV displays out of the total TV display market will be 8.6% - and this will grow to 20.6% (IHS estimates the total TV display market at $36 billion in 2025).
IHS sees OLED TV panel prices starting to decrease in 2020 as OLED TV panel makers (LGD is currently the only one) start to adopt new technologies to decreases costs such as multi-model glass (MMG), ink-jet printing and QD-OLEDs.
It is interesting to note that LG Display itself expects to ship 5.5 million OLED TVs in 2020, and over 10 million in 2022. It is likely that LGD will aim to increase its production capacity further between 2022 and 2025, and we also expect other display makers (including Samsung with its QD-OLEDs) to finally join the OLED TV market. So it is likely that in 2025 OLED TV panel production volume will increase by at least 3X compared to 2020 - but according to IHS the revenues will only increase by around 50%.
In another interesting report, it is said that IHS lowered its 2019 OLED TV shipments estimate from 3.2 million to 3 million. LG itself is aiming to ship 3.8 million OLED TV panels in 2019. It is not clear why IHS has such a lower forecast compared to LGD itself.
