DSCC recently said that SDC's OLED fab utilization is starting to improve as production starts for next-gen iPhones and Galaxy phones, and UBI Research also says that the market recovery is starting. CLSA, however, says that it is too soon to talk about OLED recovery.
CLSA agrees that SDC's fab utilization will rise from about 35% to 80% in the second half of 2018, but CLSA also believes that Samsung is not even considering the A4 fab (30,000 monthly substrates) which will remain idle, which means that actual utilization will be lower than stated.
CLSA further estimates that BOE will only be able to produce around 6 to 8 million flexible OLED panels in 2018 - down from earlier guidance of around 20 million. BOE failed to be qualified by both Xiaomi and Oppo. Visionox's output will also be limited in 2018. CLSA says recovery at the OLED sector may take longer than expected - especially in the equipment space. DSCC also said that OLED equipment spending will continue and decline - and strong demand will return only in 2020
