DSCC - Page 13

DSCC says that Samsung Display's OLED utilization has started to improve as it is starting to produce new OLED displays for new smartphones by Samsung, Apple and other makers.

SDC's utilization rates started to improve in May 2018, with the rigid A2 OLED fab expected to exceed 80% in June. At 100% yields, the A2 can produce 175,000 monthly substrates. DSCC says that 5.5-inch to 6-inch rigid OLEDs cost will fall to $23 in Q3 2018, with the price premium over LTPS LCDs will be around $5. DSCC says that at such a small gap they expect demand for rigid OLEDs will remain strong.

DSCC says that the OLED circular polarizer market is set to grow from $428 million in 2017 to $1.27 billion in 2022. The market is still dominated by mobile displays.

The OLED circular polarizer market is led by two companies, Sumitomo Chemical and Nitto Denko, with LG Chem increasing its market share in OLED TVs polarizers.

DSCC lowered its OLED material revenue forecasts, saying that the market is expected to grow at a 25% CAGR from $773 million in 2017 to $2.35 billion in 2022 (down from its previous estimates of $2.56 billion in 2022). The fastest growing (51% CAGR) OLED application will be OLED lighting, which will grow from $12 million in 2017 to $95 million in 2022.

DSCC also published the material stack for Samsung's latest OLEDs (used in the Galaxy S9), which you can see above.

DSCC says that OLED equipment spending will fall 30% in 2018. OLED spending will outpace LCD spending and OLED will hold a 60% share of all display equipment spending from 2019-2021, but OLED spending will not reach the high levels of 2017 in the foreseeable future.

According to DSCC, China is driving display (LCD + OLED) spending and will account for an 83% share of OLED equipment spending in 2018.

Earlier this month DSCC announced that it sees low AMOLED fab utilization at SDC, following lower than expected Apple orders. The weaker-than-expected 2018 will move OLED makers to delay and cancel new OLED fab expansion plans.

DSCC now released its updated forecast numbers. The company lowered its outlook for 2018 by 22% and expects total OLED revenues to be $30.3 billion (up 30% from 2017). Looking further ahead to 2022, DSCC sees the market growing at a CAGR of 23% (down from its earlier estimates of 27%). In 2022 the total OLED market will reach $64.3 billion in revenues (down from its earlier estimates of $79.6 billion).

Market analysts from DSCC say that the low utilization rates at Samsung Display has caused the company to delay its capacity expansion plans. SDC's decision to delay its A5 fab has already been discussed, but DSCC now says that Samsung is also significantly delaying the ramp-up at its new A4 line. DSCC estimates that SDC will delay this new line by at least a year.

LG Display has also reportedly cancelled the first phase of their next flexible OLED line, the P7 (which can be a conversion of LGD's old P7 LCD line). DSCC sees LGD ordering equipment for a new flexible OLED line only at the beginning of 2019.

Display analyst firm DSCC posted an interested article stating that the latest range of bezel-less LCDs are very similar to the high-end flexible OLEDs in form (not in contrast or image quality), to the point that mid-smartphone makers find it hard to justify the extra cost of a flexible OLEDs. The following table graphs shows the current price gap between flexible OLEDs and LCDs:
While a flexible OLED does enable a higher display-to-body ratio (82.9% on the iPhone X, for example), a high end LCD comes pretty close - the Oppo F5 reaches 78.1%.

Display Supply Chain Consultants (DSCC) says that OLED material revenues grew 43% to reach $869 million in 2017. DSCC expects the OLED material market to grow at a 24% CAGR until 2022, when the market will reach $2.56 billion.

The small/medium display market accounts to about 59% of the total OLED material market, and this will continue until 2022. For the TV market, DSCC expects ink-jet printing to enable producers to make lower the material costs of OLED TV production, and OLED TV materials will grow at a rate of 23%, from $344 in 2017 to $963 million in 2022.

DSCC says that OLED revenues reached $8.8 billion in Q4 2017, growing 62% from the previous quarter and 120% from Q4 2016. The main drivers of this growth are shipments for the iPhone X and OLED TV panel growth in the holiday season. In 2017, OLED revenues reached a record of $23.2 billion, a growth of 57% from 2016 ($14.7 billion).

DSCC says that smartphone revenues accounted for 87.4% of the total AMOLED market, and OLED TV shipments had a 5.6% share ($1.3 billion in revenues). The 3rd largest application is smart watch panels (3.2%).

Display Analysts from DSCC says that 2017 was a record year for the display equipment market, with revenues reaching a record $24.7 billion (up 30% from 2016). OLED spending reached a record $15.5 billion - a 143% increase over 2016. Samsung's share of the OLED equipment market was 48%, followed by BOE with $24% (following a 229% growth from 2016).

OLED equipment revenues represents 63% of the entire display equipment market, surpassing LCD - which saw revenues dropping 27% from 2016. In 2018 DSCC sees the equipment market falling 9%, although booking will increase as growth will resume in 2019. The main reason behind the decline in 2018 is due to Samsung which will reduce its equipment orders by 64% in 2018. 2018 is expected to be the first year where China leads in OLED spending with a 64% to 36% advantage over Korea.