Earlier this week we reported that Samsung and LG will attempt to resolve their OLED technology patent disputes and settle the lawsuits outside of the courts. Now DisplaySearch posted an interesting article in which they speculate that the two Korean companies may cooperate on OLED TV technologies.
DisplaySearch gives three reasons for this possible cooperation:
DisplaySearch says that AMOLED displays have captured 6% of the small/medium display market in 2012 (this means displays that are 9" in size and smaller). They say that in 2015 penetration will more than double to 13%.
In 2012 total OLED shipments (which include PMOLED and AMOLED panels) will reach 191 million units, or 8.4% of the total small/medium display category. Total OLED shipments almost doubled from 2010, as can be seen from the chart below:
DisplaySearch posted an interesting blog post, in which they say that both Samsung and LG Display have decided, due to technical difficulties with OLED TV production, to put more emphasis in high-definition TVs (4K2K, or UHD), and delay OLED TV production. DisplaySearch also says that most consumers will prefer a larger and cheaper LCD TV over a high-end, slim OLED TV.
Both Samsung and LGD first unveiled their stunning 55" OLED TVs in January 2012, but they haven't managed to actually launch these TVs yet. According to the post, the yield in Samsung's and LGD's AMOLED TV fabs is still in the single digits, and even after repairing panels, the yield will be less than 30%. In addition, frit encapsulation is too fragile for large area TV, and so the panel lifetime is reduced.
DisplaySearch released their 2012-2016 global TV market forecasts. They have reduced OLED TV shipments to just 500 units in 2012 and 50,000 in 2013. Meanwhile, 4K2K LCD TVs are expected to grow from 4,000 units in 2012 to 154,000 in 2013. However, DisplaySearch predicts that OLED TV growth will pickup soon afterwards to reach 9 million units in 2016:
Jennifer Colegrove from DisplaySearch gave a talk at the Emerging Display Technologies conference a few days ago. DisplaySearch now estimates that the OLED display market will reach $44 billion in 2019. The OLED TV market will begin to take off in 2015 with rapid growth. The OLED lighting market will reach $6.3 billion by 2018.
Jennifer also says that within 3 years, 10 new AMOLED factories will become online - this includes both new factories and upgraded ones.
DisplaySearch says that the AMOLED market is expected to grow almost tenfold from 2012 (2.3 million square meters) to 2016 (22 million square meters). DisplaySearch are basing their forecast on planned investments, and they say that most of the capacity increase will be driven by OLED TV production.
While Samsung has been successful in improving yields for small OLED production (to an almost-LCD level) and thus enabling an only 30% premium over LCDs, producing large OLED panels is still very expensive - mainly due to low yields and high material costs.
DisplaySearch revised their numbers, and they now predict that only 20,000 OLED TVs will be sold in 2012 (down from 50,000). They simply say that Samsung and LG together will not be able to produce more panels in 2012. July has come, and the two companies hasn't yet managed to start producing those panels.
A couple of weeks ago, we heard reports that Samsung set a target of producing 200,000 55" OLED TV panels in 2012, while LG plans to make 50,000 panels. In January LG Display still hoped to make 200,000 panels in 2012, but this is probably not going to happen.
DisplaySearch says that the global OLED market is expected to grow to 242.5 million units in 2012, up 128% compared to 2011. Revenue will reach $5.93 billion, up 102% from last year (which means that DisplaySearch sees a rather drastic price drops in OLEDs, as average panel size will most likely go up in 2012 as OLEDs start to appear in tablets and TVs).
Toshiba OLED tablet prototype
DisplaySearch sees 176.5 million OLED for smartphone displays in 2012, up from 81.3 million in 2010. In 2013, OLED for smartphones will reach 261 million units.
In the beginning of February, Samsung Electronics reported that it is considering taking over Samsung Mobile Display. Now there are some rumors that Samsung is planning to spin-off it's LCD panel division, perhaps to later merge it with the OLED unit.
Creating an independent flat panel producer (the biggest one in the world) that will need to be profitable and not just care for Samsung Electronic's interest will have lot's of implications. DisplaySearch reports that such a move also reflects a significant change in Samsung’s flat panel strategy - putting LCD and OLED in an equal position.
DisplaySearch says that OLED displays are estimated to take around 4% of the total flat panel display (FPD) industry in 2011, and this will grow to around 16% in 2018. Revenue wise, OLEDs will grow from over $4 billion in 2011 to over $20 billion in 2018. A few weeks ago DisplaySearch said that AMOLED display revenue will reach $3.36 billion in 2011 - which means that they forecast around $700 million in PMOLED revenue.
The company also says that OLED lighting is gaining momentum, and will reach $6 billion in revenue by 2018.
