IHS estimates the current OLED lighting market (at the panel level) at $2.7 million in 2014, and says that the market will grow tenfold by 2020 - to reach $26 million. IHS expects panel prices to drop 40% in the next several years, but OLEDs will still not be able to compete with LED lighting, and this is why it does not expect OLED lighting to really emerge as a mass market in the near future.
A Philips OLED installation
IHS is rather pessimistic, and other analysts see panel prices dropping much more quickly and volumes rise at a much more dramatic rate. IDTechEx for example see a $200 million panel market in 2019 that will grow to $1.9 billion in 2025. Cintelliq sees OLED competing with LEDs in 2016, and 500 million 100x100 mm OLED lighting panels produced in 2023.
UBI Research estimates that the OLED lighting market will take off in 2015, and will grow to reach $4.7 billion in revenue by 2020. According to UBI within three years a 100x100 mm OLED lighting panel will cost under $5 to produce.
