Our friend at the DisplayBlog, Jin, has written an interesting view on OLEDs. Basically he says that by the time OLEDs are available (around 2010, hopefully) LCD/PDP TVs might have better contrast, be just as thin and with the same color gamut - and obviously they will be cheaper when OLEDs first arrive. In fact he thinks that a 30" OLED will cost about as much as a 60" LCD - and he's probably right at that - I'm not sure however that everyone will want such huge TVs!
My take is a bit different. First of all, I believe that OLEDs will improve at a faster rate than LCD/PDP. It's true that much more money is invested in the older, more proven techs, but being a new technology OLEDs can enjoy a much faster rate of improvement (it's always like that with new tech).
Second, I believe that because OLEDs are inherently simpler, and do not require a back light, they will always enjoy a better contrast ratio (blacks will only be real blacks when you do not use a backlight) and they will be smaller too. Actually being so much more simple means that OLEDs will eventfully be cheaper to make than other types of TVs. Another thing that Jin forgot to mention is refresh rate where OLEDs fare a lot better than LCD/PDP in this regard!
In fact, let me say this - LCD and PDP TVs simply do not look good. I have seen several new models, and on all of them the picture is always 'smeared'. My old CRT (yeah...) has a picture quality that is better! So while the new TVs are flat and thin and big and shiny - I personally think we have lost something in the picture quality.
My last argument is that OLEDs are also more power efficient - I think this is an important point. As we move towards a more environmental-oriented way of life, I believe this will be a major factor.
So what do you think? I'll be happy to get some reader's comments about this discussion!
Comments
Dave,
It's true that it's possible to make them flexible, and transparent too.
But I don't think that we'll see such TVs in 2010! It will take several more years, I think!
Ron
Portability: The mobile phone platform requires the LCD to be extremely power efficient. Roughly 99.9% of all mobile phones incorporate LCD technology and there is a reason for it: performance and cost. The brutal reality is that cost is a big factor in making any business decision. It is not the only factor but is a very important one.
Real color: RGB LED backlights applications that incorporate LCDs are generating much better color (100% NTSC or more) than before. Before it was limited to about 72% for CCFLs and about 90% NTSC for enhanced CCFLs with better phosphors known as Wide Color Gamut CCFL (WCG-CCFL). This not only applies to LCD TVs but to LCD monitors and notebook PCs. With cost related to manufacturing and integrating RGB LEDs coming down I think there will be more and more LCD products with extremely good color.
Health effect: As with any product that we use, we need to be reasonable and careful. I don't think I need to say much more than this as most will understand.
Environmental Impact: This is a very important topic especially in light of the enormous impact that electronic goods have on the environment. We throw away millions of mobile phones every year. Where do they all go? They are certainly not all recycled! The less we use to manufacture what we need the better. I think a good step is to eliminate toxic materials in our electronic goods. Most LCDs have CCFL backlights and CCFL technology requires a trace amount of mercury to operate. Mercury is a toxic material and is a big problem. By transitioning to LED we are eliminating mercury and I think that's a good shift. LEDs also require less bulk which means for the same display a manufacture can use less material to house the LCD. You can see that LCDs with LED backlights tend to be thinner and in general consume less energy. This is just a small step and I hope that most electronic goods move toward being more friendly to the environment.
Less Energy: I think that most will agree there have been continued improvements in reducing energy consumption in electronic goods especially large LCD and PDP TVs. Although I don't have an industry wide trend, I do see manufacturers working very hard to reduce power consumption. This reduction is possible by several advancements in optical technology as well as TFT (thin-film transistor)manufacturing. The optical films that allow for the diffusion and recycling of light from a light source is improving so that less light is required to achieve a certain brightness specification. Improvements in BEF (brightness enhancement film) technology and diffusion technology allow for less powerful light sources. Regarding TFT manufacture, transistor sizes are being reduced that increase the aperture ratio and pass more light. Allowing more light through means you get more light without having to use a more power-hungry backlight. These are but just a few examples of developments that allow equal or better front screen performance while using less energy.
Electromagnetic Interference & Radiation: Although I am not an expert in this area my wife is an optometrist and knows first hand that CRT and screens like it (PDP) are not good for your eyes especially if you use it for long durations and are close to it. Even for LCD monitor users it is recommended that you rest your eyes every 1 hour and try to look at things that are farther away.
I do not know what will happen in the future but I am optimistic that companies involved in the display industry will continue to improve the technology, reduce power consumption, be more friendly toward the environment and ultimately serve the customer with good products. I just happen to think that LCD technology will be around for a good long while. :-)
do people want big tv's? absolutely yes.
the perfect TV would be about 2 metres high
so that when you see a person on the screen
you are seeing them in REAL size format.
when your in a car its real size,
or walking on a path its real size,
not some little box on a stand in the corner.
We want to 'be there' in the picture.
while it is true that LCD's will continual to improve in the next couple years. the simple fact of the matter is that LCD's need backlights which will make them heavier and larger then OLED's. Backlights will always hurt color accuracy. Backlights will always hurt power efficiency. Backlights add to the complexity of the screen and will make them more costly to produce. The only current disadvantages to OLED's are product life and expense; those problems are fixable, they only exist because the technology is new. LCD's problems are permanent, and while you can reduce them through better technology, you cant get rid of them without the product no longer being a LCD.
not only will OLED's replace LCD's in virtually all applications LCD's are currently used for. OLED's will create new uses for screens that we would of never dreamed of doing before OLED's.