IDTechEx released a new OLED lighting report (OLED vs LED lighting 2013-2023) in which they analyze the OLED lighting market, and compare it to the LED market. The company says that in the "most likely" scenario, the OLED market will grow to $1.3 billion in 2023.
According to IDTechEx, there are two main issues with OLEDs. First of all the performance: LEDs last much longer (typically 50,000 hours compared to 5,000-15,000 in current OLED panels) and they are more efficient (90-100 lm/W compared to OLED lighting which is currently at 20-50 lm/W). Personally I think this gap will close in time. LG Chem for example are expected to release new panels in July 2013 which will feature 80 lm/W and 20,000 hours (LT70).
The second major problem with OLED lighting is the cost, of course. According to IDTechEx LEDs are currently selling at around $5 per klm, while OLEDs cost around $300-$500 per klm. This is expected to drop because of new production technologies, cheaper materials and better encapsulation technologies, but OLEDs will remain very expensive in the foreseeable future.
Was the headline supposed to read "1.3 Billion in 2023"? I didn't think the market was that big this year.