UBI - Page 9

UBI research that the OLED material market reached $564 million in H1 2015. This is a 14% increase from H2 2014, but a 24% decrease from the first half of 2014.

The main reason for this, according to UBI, is that OLED production is stagnating and price of material is decreasing rapidly. The main reason for the production stagnation is Samsung Display's low utilization (which was about 50% in H1 2015) and LG's low OLED TV production volume (around 100,000 units).

A couple of weeks ago, UBI Research said that OLED lighting panel shipments will grow quickly in coming years - from around $100 million in 2016 to over $2.7 billion in 2020. By 2025, OLED lighting will grab about 10% of the total lighting market.

Today UBI released some more forecasts, this time about the interior lighting market. According to UBI, starting in 2020, OLED lighting will become competitive with LED lighting, and will gain market share. By 2025, OLED will become the dominant interior lighting technology, generating $5.7 billion in revenue. Flexible OLED lighting will take up about 27% of the total OLED interior lighting market.

UBI Research says that while LEDs are currently the most prominent next-gen lighting devices, OLED panel shipments will grow quickly in coming years, and they see the market growing from around $100 million in 2016 to over $2.7 billion in 2020. By 2025, OLED lighting will grab about 10% of the total lighting market.

UBI says that by increasing production capacity and using a Gen-5 fab (they actually say 1270x1270 mm substrates) a 100x100 mm OLED panel can be produced for $5 or lower. In about 10 years, this will drop to $2.5 per panel - which is in line with current costs of incandescent and fluorescent lights ($1 to $3). It is actually cheaper than current LED prices (which are around $10 for a comparable device). Of course LED prices will also drop in 10 years, but UBI still sees the market expanding very quickly.

UBI Research sees fast growth ahead for white-OLED displays (WRGB) in the next five years. Currently WRGB is only used in OLED TV panels (made by LG Display) and all OLED microdisplays, but UBI says the technology will be adopted in small and medium sized panels as well.

UBI sees over 150 million WRGB OLEDs produced in 2020, out of over a billion OLED displays in total - so WRGB displays will account for 15% of the OLED market. Not all of these will be large OLED TV panels of course. In terms of revenue, WRGB OLEDs will generate over $13 billion in 2020 - most of which will come from large-sized OLED panels.

UBI Research estimates that the OLED emitting material market will grow to $560 million USD in 2015, a 16% growth from 2014. UBI says that the market will grow by 35% CAGR in coming years, to reach $2.5 billion in 2020.

Korea currently buys over 90% of OLED materials, but China's new players are starting to produce AMOLED displays and China will gain a market share of over 20%.

UBI Research forecasts that the OLED lighting market will reach 82 million in 2015, and grow fast till 2020 - when it will reach $4.7 billion. As prices are expected to drop quickly when capacities expand, this means UBI sees very large OLED lighting panel shipments starting in 2016.

UBI is by far the most optimistic about OLED lighting from all market research we've seen. IDTechEx for example see a $200 million panel market in 2019 that will grow to $1.9 billion in 2025. Cintelliq sees OLED competing with LEDs in 2016, and 500 million 100x100 mm OLED lighting panels produced in 2023.

UBI Research estimates that the flexible OLED market will generate $1.8 billion in revenues in 2015, and will grow quickly at a 60% annual growth rate (CAGR) to reach $17.6 billion by 2020. The primary application driving this grwoth will be tablet pcs.

UBI also says that Samsung decided to change the encapsulation technology used in their upcoming A3 production line. In their current flexible OLED production, Samsung uses the old Vitex technology which is slow and expensive.

UBI Research estimates that the OLED lighting market will take off in 2015, and will grow to reach $4.7 billion in revenue by 2020. According to UBI within three years a 100x100 mm OLED lighting panel will cost under $5 to produce. This is assuming a large substrate (1270x1270 mm), a fast production process and a tandem structure.

In such a scenario, the largest cost (over 80%) will be for the OLED materials. This means that at that stage companies will put most of their focus on lowering the material usage and cheaper OLED materials.

UBI Research says that while the AMOLED market is slated for a modest growth in 2014 (revenues of $10 billion, up from $8.9 billion in 2013), fast growth will resume from 2016 onwards. UBI sees a CAGR growth of 32% from 2016, till revenues reach $46.5 billion in 2020.

UBI says that 2014's revenue growth will be only 10% because both Samsung Display and LG Display delayed OLED investments. Samsung is already constructing its A3 flexible OLED line, and LG Display is also expected to start placing orders for flexible OLED production equipment for their upcoming Gen-6 fab. UBI also expects LGD to start constructing a new OLED TV fab, the M3 line (in addition to the M2 fab which is very close to mass production). So the market is expected to recover its growth in mid 2015.

Since they launched the world's first OLED TV in August 2013, LG managed to slash the price from $14,999 to about $4,000 (currently the EA9800 costs $4,299 in Amazon.com). We all hope LG will continue to lower the price, obviously, so it's good to hear that LGD's Byeonggyu Roh says that they will continue to reduce the cost of their OLED TV panel production.

According to UBI Research, LGD ultimate goal is to reach a price premium of only 10% over LCDs. LG needs to lower the costs across the board - taking advantage of existing LCD lines and equipment, optimizing the thickness of all th display layers (TFT, organic materials and encapsulation), improving the production process times and more.