Omdia (IHS) - Page 11

IHS estimates that 90.8 million OLED panels shipped in Q1 2016, and most of these (87.35 million) used in smartphones. 2 million panels were used in smartwatches. IHS also estimates that 145,000 OLED TVs shipped in Q1 2016 (a decrease from the 200,000 panels shipped in Q4 2015).

OLED adoption in smartphones increased by 62.8% compared to Q1 2015. The increase in OLED shipments to smartphones were mostly due to new (most Chinese) smartphone makers using OLED displays. SDC is still the clear OLED leader, with a market share of 97.7%. LGD follows with 0.9% and AUO with 0.7%.

IHS say that the lower prices of AMOLEDs and the improvements in production is attracting more device makers to adopt AMOLED panels in their products. This leads to rapid increase in AMOLED shipments.

IHS sees 395 million AMOLEDs shipped in 2016 (this seems a bit optimistic) - an increase of 40% compared to 2015. Revenues will increase by 25% to reach $15 billion. AMOLED penetration in smartphone displays will rise from 17% in 2015 to 21% in 2016. IHS says that "AMOLED is becoming the shiniest spot in the flat-panel display industry".

According to IHS, a 5" Full-HD AMOLED display now costs $14.3 (down from $17.1 in Q4 2015) - and now costs less than a similar LCD display ($14.7, down from $15.7 in Q4 2015). This is the first time an AMOLED costs less than an LCD.

IHS says that to make a 5" FHD LCD, the materials costs are $9.2 and non-material costs (including deprecation) s $5.4. For an AMOLED display, materials cost $7.2 and non material costs amount to $7.2.

IHS performed a teardown of Samsung's Galaxy S7, and the company estimates that Samsung's latest flagship costs $255 to build - with a bill of materials (BOM) of $249.55. The retail price of the S7 is around $670 (Verizon, US).

The most expensive component is the application processor which is based on Qualcomm's Snapdragon 820 chipset and is estimated at $62. The second most expensive part is SDC's 5.1" 2560x1440 (577 PPI) Super AMOLED display - which is estimated at $55. IHS tested the flat S7 and not the S7 edge - but in the table they released (see above) they say that display is Dual Edge display - which is a mistake.

IHS says that the sale of OLED materials (emitters and other materials) increased 12% in 2015, to reach 26,000 tons and $465 million in revenue. Most of the growth came from OLED TVs, and this is set to continue in coming years, with volume reaching 100,000 tons by 2018 - or $1.8 billion in revenue.

IHS says that the market for small/medium display materials will more then double from 2015 to 2018, but OLED TV material growth will be even faster. Materials for WOLED TVs will outsell materials for RGB small/medium displays in 2017.

IHS says that the demand for flexible AMOLED is rising dramatically (following the success of Samsung's Galaxy Edge series and the Apple Watch), and display makers are aggressively investing in expanded production capacity and flexible OLED technologies.

In 2014, flexible OLED shipments were only 2% of all AMOLED panel shipments. In 2015 57 million flexible AMOLED were produced, to grab a 20% share of the total AMOLED market (285 million panels, according to IHS). By 2020, flexible AMOLEDs will represent 40% of the total AMOLED market. Of course rigid AMOLED production will rise too - but the growth rate for flexible OLEDs is expected to be much higher than for rigid ones.

A couple of weeks ago, IHS said that 79 million AMOLED displays shipped in Q3 2015 - a new record high. Today IHS released the following chart showing AMOLED (and other screen types) mobile phone shipments in 2015:

IHS says that 2015 will be a "banner year" for AMOLED as more and more display makers are adopting the new screen type in their high-end smartphones. In fact, IHS says that "The simpler structure and better picture performance of AMOLED screens may even encourage Apple to consider adopting the technology in the future".

According to IHS, 79 million AMOLED displays shipped in Q3 2015 - which is a new record high. The revenues from those OLEDs reached $3.29 billion - also a record high. Q3 2015 shipments doubled that of Q3 2014, and rose 35% over Q2 2015. Most of these displays were, of course, produced by Samsung Display and ended up in smartphones.

IHS says that the AMOLED displays accounts for 18% of the total mobile phone display market.

IHS estimates that the flexible display market will grow very fast, with a CAGR of 44% from 2014 onwards - to reach a market of $23 billion in 2024 (as flexible displays, mostly OLEDs, will grab 15% of the total flat panel display market).

Today IHS says that they see foldable display (in tablets and smartphones) appearing as early as next year. IHS sees 180 million foldable displays sold in 2020, which means foldable displays will take up 51% of the total flexible display market.

IHS says that AMOLED material consumption will increase dramatically starting in the second half of 2015 as LG Display increase WRGB (WOLED) OLED TV panel production. The market will more than threefold - reaching $165 million in H2 2015, up from $58 million in H1.

IHS forecasts that the WOLED material market will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 79% from 2014 to 2019, to reach over $1.25 billion. The whole AMOLED materials market will grow at 54%, from $658 million in 2015 to $2 billion in 2019 (at a CAGR of 37%).