iSuppli - Page 2

iSupply says that AMOLED shipments are soaring (due to high-end Android phone demand). According to iSupply, in 2010 49.4 million AMOLED displays shipped bringing in a total of $892 million. This will grow to 271 million units in 2015 - to reach $3.6 billion in revenue. Challenges still ahead for AMOLED expansion include high manufacturing cost, resolution challenges, limited lifetime, poor sunlight visibility and a time-consuming manufacturing process. According to iSupply, AMOLEDs are typically 30% to 60% more expensive to make than LTPS LCD displays (which seems like an exaggeration to us).

DisplaySearch are much more optimistic about OLEDs: in their own forecasts released last month, they predict that AMOLED shipments in 2011 will reach 128 million to bring $4 billion in revenue. In 2012, AMOLED shipments will reach 212 million - and $6.4 billion in revenue. And all of this only from the mobile phone market...

iSupply has performed a teardown of Nokia's N8, and they say that the most expensive part is the display which costs $39.25. This includes the 3.5" AMOLED and the touch overlay. The whole phone costs $187.47 to build (and it costs $549 to buy unlocked...). The AMOLED is made by Samsung of course, while the touch layer is made by Synaptics.

Back in July, iSupply estimated that the 3.7" AMOLED in the Droid Incredible costs $31.2. We're not sure if that included the touch overlay, but in any case it's strange - the price has changed considerably. Perhaps Samsung is now charging higher prices for AMOLEDs...

iSupply has published a teardown analysis of the HTC Droid Incredible, saying that the phone costs $163 to make. They say that the AMOLED display (Samsung's 3.7" 480x800) costs $31.20. This is rather strange, as back in January, they claimed that the same display, used in Google's Nexus-One phone costs $23.5.

HTC Incredible

So maybe the costs went up (because of Samsung's short supply). Back in January, iSupply estimated that the Touch Interface costs $17.75. So maybe the cost of both the touch and the AMOLED went down, and now they cost $31.2 together?

The HTC Incredible is now shipping for Verizon's network in the US - and it costs $99 with a new service plan (if you want to use an existing plan, it'll cost $530).

Just a week after telling us that the 3.7" AMOLED as used in Google's Nexus One costs $23.5, iSupply now says that the 3.7" TFT-LCD used in Motorola's Droid costs $17.75. That means that the AMOLED costs 32% more. The touchscreen overlay costs $17.75
in both the Nexus One and the Droid. This means that totally, the
AMOLED touch display is only 16% more expensive than the touch TFT-LCD.

Interestingly, the iPhone 3GS' LCD is smaller than the Droid's (at 3.5") but costs more - $19.25. That means that Google's 3.7" AMOLED costs only 22% more than the smaller iPhone display.

Obviously these are just iSupply's estimates, but it's interesting anyway. 

iSupply estimates that Samsung's 3.7" WVGA AMOLED touchscreen used in Google's Nexus One phone costs $23.5. The whole bill-of-materials of the phone is $174.15. The most expensive part Qualcomm's processor ($30.5).

iSupply say that OLED TV panel shipments will enjoy a 200-times increase in the next 6 years, but will still account for a tiny portion of the TV market. Global revenue will reach $1.8 billion in 2015, up from $10 million in 2009. Total units will be around 4.7 million.

Strangely, they say that 25,000 units will ship in 2009. But the only OLED TVs cost around 2,500$ (Sony's XEL-1), which means that $10M in revenue equals 4,000 units...

iSupply says the OLED displays for mobile phones (main displays) are expected to rise from 178m units in 2015 - up from 22.2m in 2009 (that's a factor of eight).

And beyond the other allures offered by OLED, the technology is more environmentally sustainable compared to that of conventional LCDs. OLEDs will still acount for a small part of the total market - only 6% in 2013.  iSupply says that the only factors limiting great penetratration is the limited number of suppliers and factories. In an interesting note, iSupply says that the 2.6" OLED in the N85 costs 7.05$. An equivalent LCD would have cost 6.5$. That's only 8% more.

 

The worldwide AMOLED market will grow to 185.2 million units by 2014,
rising at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 84.2%, up from 2.6
million units in 2007, according to iSuppli. Revenue is expected to
grow in concert, expanding to US$4.6 billion by 2014, up at a CAGR of
83.3% from US$67 million in 2007.

In order to accelerate the process of migrating AMOLED
technology from niche to mass market, multiple suppliers must add to
their manufacturing resources and ramp up production quickly, Jakhanwal
advised. "While mobile handsets are the obvious main target for the
technology, these phones require multiple sources of suppliers with
sufficient volumes to meet demand. It's unlikely that a single company
will be able to fulfill this demand in the short term because no
supplier presently has sufficient capacity."

Furthermore,
instead of focusing on the entire mobile handset market, suppliers
initially should target only high-end wireless phones because this will
allow them to justify producing products with superior images that
command higher Average Selling Prices (ASPs) than other displays.
High-end QVGA resolution handsets could generate high-volume demand for
AM-LCDs. However, the ASPs of AMOLEDs must decline in order to compete
with TFT-LCDs.

Finally, aggressively improving manufacturing yields and efficiency is
a must for AMOLED suppliers in order to reduce the costs of their
products. These issues have plagued the AMOLED business since its
inception. iSuppli believes AMOLED equipment, Intellectual Property
(IP), material and panel companies should collaborate to overcome these
manufacturing challenges. This will help build on each company's
strengths and avoid duplication of effort.

Read more here (digitimes)

After examining Sony Corp.’s 11-inch Organic Light Emitting Diode (OLED) television exhibited here at iSuppli Corp.’s Flat Information Displays (FID) 2007 conference last week, there is no denying how stunning the picture is. But at just 11-inches, it’s hard to imagine a family gathering around it to watch a DVD or television show.



But because the OLED-TV market is still in its infancy, with the Sony set being the first to be manufactured and sold to consumers, it’s unreasonable to expect it to compete effectively with Liquid Crystal Display (LCD) or Plasma Display Panel (PDP) televisions at this time. However, this begs the question: Will OLED TV ever be able to match up with LCD and PDP televisions?



It will be a challenge for OLED to catch up, given the investments that have been put into the other technologies, said Paul Semenza, vice president of displays at iSuppli Corp., speaking at FID 2007 last week. But there is no doubt about its performance and there is a lot of potential for the display technology, maybe in mobile applications.



With Sony being the first to throw its hat into the OLED-TV ring, due to its introduction of the 11-inch set this month in Japan at a price of $1,800, shipment volumes are expected to be very small, targeting a small niche of well-heeled, tech-savvy consumers. And even at such a high price, Sony indicated that it is taking a loss on the sale of each OLED set, according to Vinita Jakhanwal, principal analyst for mobile displays at iSuppli.



A few more brands are likely to enter the OLED-TV market in 2009, including Toshiba Corp. and Panasonic Corp. The major motivation for these companies’ entrance into the market is to make a statement to the industry that they are capable of producing OLED TVs, Jakhanwal added.

OLED problems and benefits

Semenza stressed that despite the obstacles, iSuppli does not discount the prospects and potential of OLED technology. However, there are a number of fundamental technology and market challenges that must be resolved before OLEDs can make a real impact in the market. One of these challenges is the fact that Active-Matrix OLED (AMOLED) panel manufacturing is still an inefficient process, Jakhanwal said. As the size of OLED displays becomes larger, the yields and manufacturing losses also get larger.



As a result, AMOLED products are going to be small-sized displays, for applications such as mobile phones and Personal Media Players (PMPs) for a few more years, Jakhanwal said. OLED suppliers still are struggling with improving yield rates and low manufacturing efficiencies for small-sized displays.



Furthermore, OLED material lifetimes are still an issue for products that require long lifetimes such as televisions. Add to this the fact that AMOLED suppliers cannot guarantee high volumes because the technology is coming from a single source.



However, OLED TV has a number of great upsides, including:

• OLED TVs use no backlights, so they offer potential power-savings benefits compared to other technologies.


• Because they have no backlights and use only a single glass substrate, OLED TVs can be very thin.


• The response time for OLED TVs is very fast, so there is no motion blur while watching television.


• OLED TVs have a much richer color gamut than competing display technologies.

iSuppli forecasts the global OLED TV market will reach 2.8 million units by 2013, managing a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 212.3 percent from just 3,000 units in 2007. In terms of global revenue, OLED TV will hit $1.4 billion by 2013, increasing at a CAGR of 206.8 percent from $2 million in 2007.

Potential is everything

Because OLEDs already serve as small panels for mobile handsets, PMPs and other small handheld devices, it is safe to assume OLED TVs could be a natural fit for automotive infotainment, mobile television, kitchen televisions or other consumer electronics devices that want to add small-screen sets.



The main challenge for the OLED-TV industry is making large-enough panels that could be sold at reasonable prices in order to compete against the other television technologies. Still, iSuppli believes that OLED TV is promising in the long term. Reducing power consumption, extending lifetimes, achieving larger sizes and attaining reasonable pricing eventually will help OLED TV to be competitive, but in the meantime, it will find a place in applications that require small sets.

Now mainly relegated to handset displays, OLED TV shipments will rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 170.6% to reach 1.2 million units in 2012, up from 8,000 in 2007. Sales revenue for OLED TVs will increase to US$691 million in 2012, rising from less than US$1 million in 2007, iSuppli forecasts.

Moreover, the resolutions needed in the TV market are attainable with OLEDs. OLED TVs in larger sizes, i.e. greater than 20-inches, could be sold by the 2012 timeframe. Most likely, these TVs will use polymer panels made by inkjet printing in the largest sizes, but small-molecule OLEDs made by evaporation techniques also could be used in TVs.

The plethora of technologies also may make it hard for OLED TV to attract the attention of end-product OEMs and channel vendors. Because of this, OLED will be limited to less than half of 1% of the 242.7 million unit worldwide TV market in 2011, according to iSuppli.

Read more here (Digitimes)