During SID 2012, Barry Young from the OLED Association gave a speech with some very interesting updates. First of all, he gave his own AMOLED revenue projections, which are quite bullish: in 2012, 200 million displays will ship (up from 100 million in 2011 and 50 million in 2010), generating over $8 billion in revenue (up from $3.5 billion in 2011).
Barry is more optimistic than displaysearch (they say that AMOLED revenue in 2012 will reach $5.93 billion) and UBI Research (155 million AMOLED panels in 2012, $4.4 billion in revenue).
During his speech, Barry also mentioned that the organic materials cost in a 4.8" AMOLED display are $2.04. In a 55" OLED TV, the organic materials are expected to cost $255: so each $55 OLED panel is like 125 4.8" OLED panels. This means that if indeed only 20,000 OLED TVs will be sold in 2012, the contribution to the industry will be like 2.5 million 4.8" panels, which is less than 2% of the market.
The final update from Barry is that Samsung still have technical problems in their pilot LTPS Gen-8 production line, and they will produce the OLED TVs in the Gen-5.5 fab. It seems that SMD decided that their next fab will use Oxide TFTs (IGZO).
