Counterpoint - DSCC

Counterpoint (DSCC) says that OLED panel revenues increased 28% in Q3 2024, and the company expects revenues in all of 2024 to grow 16% from 2023, mainly driven by growth in smartphones, TVs and IT applications.

In terms of unit shipments, Q3 2024 saw a 34% increase from Q3 2023. Shipments of OLED smartphone panels increased 43% from 2023 (and 24% in revenues). OLED TV shipments grew 48% in the quarter (36% increase in revenue). The largest increase came from laptop OLED panels that more than doubled (108%) in shipments in Q3.

DSCC (now part of Counterpoint) says that OLED evaporation material sales will grow 22% in 2024, and will continue to grow at a 6.4% CAGR from 2024 to 2028. Most of the growth will come from IT display panels, for laptops, monitors and tablets.

Interestingly, DSCC estimates that Chinese material developers enjoyed a 58% increase in sales in 2024 to $252 million. The primary reasons for this sharp increase in demand is increased utilization at Chinese AMOLED fabs, increased orders from local companies in China over sourcing these materials from the rest of the world, and new range of materials introduced by materials makers (as Chinese material developers move from intermediates production to emitters and dopants).

According to DSCC, the foldable smartphone display market has declined for the first time in Q3 2024, and the company sees the market entering a flat state in 2024 and 2025. The market has grown fast (at least 40% per year) since 2019, but according to DSCC it will grow only 5% in 2025 and will decline by 4% in 2025. Demand will remain stable at around 22 million units per year.

DSCC says that Samsung is seeing slower than expected demand for its Galaxy Z Flip 6 smartphone, around 10% lower than the Z Flip 5 released in 2023. Almost all of Samsung's demand is in the Korean and Europrean markets. Huawei has also placed lower than expected orders for foldable OLEDs for the second half of 2024, due to the late introduction of the Mate X6 and Pocket 3 devices compared to the 2023 launch dates. The demand for its tri-foldable Mate XT is lower than expected as well. 

DSCC says that the display industry's spend on production equipment will grow 47% in 2024, to reach $7.3 billion. The next three years (2025-2027) will see pretty much the same levels, and will  not return to the high levels we've seen in 2022 and before. 

2024 will see significant investment in new LC capacity, but going forward there will be very little  investments on LCD production, which is not surprising. DSCC says that the major catalyst for the growth will be production lines for IT AMOLED displays.

DSCC says that shipments of Apple's iPhone 16 series were 8% higher in the first month compared to the shipments of Apple''s iPhone 15 series last year. As Apple continues to target emerging markets, DSCC expects Apple to increase sales of entry level and older iPhones, including the iPhone 13, 14, and 15 series.

Interestingly, a couple of weeks ago we reported that according to Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo the first-week demand for Apple's new iPhones is lower than expected, with total demand of only 37 million units - lower by 13% compared to the demand for the iPhone 15 a year ago. It remains to be seen whether demand picked up later in September.

According to DSCC, OLED panel shipments increased 50% in the second quarter of 2024, compared to the second quarter of 2023. Compared to the previous quarter, shipments increased 13%. 

DSCC says that OLED tablet shipments increased 356% in the quarter compared to last year (led by Apple's adoption of AMOLEDs in its iPad Pro devices). OLED smartphone spanel shipments also 49%, while OLED TV panel shipments increased 30% from 2023.

DSCC says that shipments of foldable OLED panels reached a record high in the second quarter of 2024 at 9.8 million units - 126% higher than Q2 2023 (and 151% higher than the previous quarter). DSCC believes this will be the peak quarter in 2024, as the demand was fueled by the launch of Samsung's latest foldables, the Galaxy Z Flip 6 and Z Fold 6.

Samsung holds an almost 50% market share in foldable smartphone panels orders, followed by Huawei at 29%. Timing is relevant, as high demand follows new model shipping dates. DSCC estimates that clamshell devices have a 63% market share out of the total foldable smartphone market, with the rest taken up by in-folding devices.

According to DSCC, 4.1 million OLED tablet panels shipped in the second quarter of 2024, a new record high, as Apple launched its 2024 OLED iPad Pro tablets. Apple quickly became the largest buyer of OLED tab let panels - with a 72% market share in Q2 2024 (followed by Huawei at 13% and Samsung at 9%).

DSCC expects the OLED tablet panel market to fall 5% in the next quarter to 3.9 million panels (but up 169% over Q3 2023), as Apple reduces its orders dramatically after the launch, but this will be almost offset by new panels shipments to Microsoft and Honor. Growth will continue in Q4, and total panel shipments are expected to each over 14 million units in 2024, over 200% growth from 2023.

DSCC says that display makers are increasing their OLED CapEx investment as demand for OLED displays is on the rise. DSCC has raised its forecast for OLED spending by 14% compared to their previous update, while they retain their previous forecast for LCD, OLED microdisplay and microLED display equipment spending. 

Between 2020 and 2027, OLED display makers will invest $44 billion in new production equipment. The spending on OLED equipment will keep growing year after year from 2023 to 2027, reaching $6.5 billion in 2027, as OLED penetration in the smartphone, tablet and laptop market is increasing, and fab utilization is increasing too, encouraging display makers to add capacity.

DSCC says that the OLED materials market will reach $2.12 billion in 2024, rising 24% over 2023. The market will continue growing at a 6% CAGR until 2028, reaching about $2.7 billion. DSCC details the revenue split between single-stack, tandem and multi-stack panels, saying that materials used in tandem OLED panels will grow at a fast rate of 30% CAGR from 2024-2028. 

The leading materials makers by revenue in 2024 will be UDC, DuPont, LG Chemical and Samsung SDI, holding a market share of 51% together. DSCC says that Chinese materials makers will increase their market share in the future.