Market updates

DSCC (now part of Counterpoint) says that OLED evaporation material sales will grow 22% in 2024, and will continue to grow at a 6.4% CAGR from 2024 to 2028. Most of the growth will come from IT display panels, for laptops, monitors and tablets.

Interestingly, DSCC estimates that Chinese material developers enjoyed a 58% increase in sales in 2024 to $252 million. The primary reasons for this sharp increase in demand is increased utilization at Chinese AMOLED fabs, increased orders from local companies in China over sourcing these materials from the rest of the world, and new range of materials introduced by materials makers (as Chinese material developers move from intermediates production to emitters and dopants).

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UBI Research estimates that the volume of OLED emitting materials purchased in Q3 2024 reached 32.7 tons, which is the highest ever, with the previous record in 2021. UBI expects 2024 as a whole to be the record year in OLED emitter material shipments.

In terms of customers, SDC holds the largest share with 41.4% of the total market, followed by LGD (20.5%), BOE (11.6%) and Visionox (8.3%). In terms of architecture, 83.7% of all emitter materials went into RGB OLEDs, 11.3% into WOLED (LG's WRGB) panels and 2.8% into QD-OLED panels.

UBI Research says that shipments of small OLED panels rose to 247 million units, up 7.8% from the previous quarter (and up 32.6% from Q3 2023), mainly driven by increase in shipments by LG Display and Everdisplay.

LG Display shipped 17.6 million smartphones panels in the quarter, up 64% from Q2 and 12.2 million wearable OLED panels (up 147%) - thanks to strong shipments to Apple. In total LGD's AMOLED shipments grew 74% quarter to quarter, and 115% from last year. UBI expects LGD to continue and increase its shipments in Q4. The company is almost at full capacity and UBI says the company may decide to expand the capacity at one of its existing 6-Gen fabs.

UBI Research says that Samsung Display's medium and large OLED panel shipments in Q3 2024 were the same as in the previous quarter. Shipments of tablet OLED devices were low, but this was offset by increased sales of automotive displays. Compared to 2023, total medium and large OLED panel shipments more than doubled, mainly due to increased sales of tablet panels to Apple, and increased laptop OLED shipments.

UBI estimates that SDC's tablet PC sales decreased by 38% compared to the previous quarter. Automotive OLED shipments rose from 100,000 units in Q1 2024 to around 500,000 in Q3. 

According to Omdia, Korea regained the top position in the AMOLED market in Q2 2024, after China surpassed Korea in Q1 2024 for the first time.

Omdia says that both Samsung Display and LG Display enjoyed increased sales of high-end AMOLED displays for IT devices (laptops and tablets), and held a market share of 49.9% in Q2 2024, while Chinese OLED makers (Visionox, BOE, Everdisplay, Tianma and CSoT) held a market share of 49%.

UBI Research estimates that Apple suffers from poor demand for its iPad Pro devices, and the company has reduced its orders from LG Display and Samsung Display. We heard signs of that already back in August.

UBI estimates that LG Display's medium to large sized OLED panels shipments decreased 34% in Q3 2024, compared to the previous quarter. Samsung Display's tablet OLED panel sales dropped 38% in the quarter. Samsung however enjoyed higher sales of automotive OLEDs, which means that its entire medium-to-large sales were flat in the quarter.

Omdia has updated its Apple iPad and Macbook display roadmaps, with new forecasts and information about Apple's OLED adoption plans in its IT product lines. 

According to Omdia, Apple's iPad Mini will get a 8.4-inch LTPS OLED display in 2026. In 2027, Apple will also introduce OLED displays in its iPad Aid models (11-inch and 13-inch). In 2028 Apple will revamp the OLED displays in its iPad Pro models, offering a tandem architecture, polarizer-free OLED design and LTPO backplanes.

Omdia released its latest OLED market forecasts, and the company says the small/medium (1-inch to 8-inch) OLED shipments will surpass one billion for the first time in 2025. 

In the smartphone market, Omdia says that there has been significant growth, mainly driven by Chinese OLED producers (BOE, CSoT, Visionox, Tianma and Everdisplay). In addition to the growth in smartphone displays, OLED are expanding into new applications, including AR/VR and automotive displays.

According to DSCC, the foldable smartphone display market has declined for the first time in Q3 2024, and the company sees the market entering a flat state in 2024 and 2025. The market has grown fast (at least 40% per year) since 2019, but according to DSCC it will grow only 5% in 2025 and will decline by 4% in 2025. Demand will remain stable at around 22 million units per year.

DSCC says that Samsung is seeing slower than expected demand for its Galaxy Z Flip 6 smartphone, around 10% lower than the Z Flip 5 released in 2023. Almost all of Samsung's demand is in the Korean and Europrean markets. Huawei has also placed lower than expected orders for foldable OLEDs for the second half of 2024, due to the late introduction of the Mate X6 and Pocket 3 devices compared to the 2023 launch dates. The demand for its tri-foldable Mate XT is lower than expected as well.