According to DSCC, display fab utilization started to decline in Q2 2022, and this continued - and bottomed out towards the end of 2022. The industry is starting to recover, but the recovery is slower than expected before.
This is true for both LCD and OLED displays, as you can see in the graph above.
Reports from Korea suggest that China-based OLED makers have seen lower utilization rates, as demand for OLED displays is smaller than expected, which is leading the companies to slow down their capacity expansion plans.
The capacity of all China-based OLED makers have risen from 20% of the global OLED market in 2019, to around 40% in 2022. But growth ahead will be slower, and by 2027, the market share of China-based makers will reach 45% of the global market. This data is from DSCC.
DSCC says that 2022 was a disappointing year for VR, as the market did not grow as expected - although it still expects the market to grow quickly in the near future. DSCC sees $942 million in display panel revenues in 2022, growing to $7.3 billion by 2027 (a CAGR of 50.7%).
DSSC sees OLED microdisplays (OLED on Silicon, or SiOLED) leading the market from 2023 onwards, as producers start using these displays in VR headsets - including Apple's upcoming VR headset that will be based on dual 4K OLED microdisplays (in addition to an AMOLED display). Apple's VR headset is expected to be released in 2023.
DSCC says that spending on equipment for the production of large area OLED panels (used in TVs and monitors) have decreased from $3 billion in 2019 to $2.05 billion in 2020, $1.47 billion in 2021 and will drop further to $1.42 billion in 2022.
DSCC estimates that in 2023, the spending on such equipment will be zero. But OLED producers will resume buying large OLED equipment in 2024. Spending in 2024 will amount $2.01 billion, and in 2025 - $1.51 billion.
DSCC says that in Q2 2022, OLED panel revenues increased 12% compared to Q2 2021, while shipment units declined 3%. Fewer OLEDs were shipped, but revenues increased as we've seen an increased growth in high value panels (gaming, monitors, laptops, automotive, etc) and also an improved form factor adoption in smartphones.
In Q2 2022, smartphones remained the largest OLED application with a 76% unit and revenue share. OLED smartwatches had a 16% unit share (and a 6% revenue share), and OLED TVs had a 11% revenue share (up from 8% in Q1 2022).
DSCC estimates that OLED smartphone display shipments will decrease 5% in 2022, to 592 million units. Flexible OLED shipments will rise by 2% (and will decline 10% in terms of revenues) but rigid OLED shipments will drop 14% (and revenues will decline 32%).
DSCC sees the OLED smartphone market declining 16% in 2022 to $317 billion (smartphone sales), and explains that this is due to macroeconomic headwinds, weakened consumer demand and problems with supply chains and inventories.
DSCC estimates that the OLED market will increase 2% in 2022, to reach $42 billion. Revenues for smartphones, the leading OLED application, will actually decline by 4%, but this will be offset by increases in other applications.
In fact, some applications will experience very fast growth: OLED monitors (641% unit growth, 279% revenue growth), OLED laptops (64% units, 39% revenue) and automotive displays (73% units, 68% revenue).
DSCC updated its OLED material market data, and it now sees AMOLED stack material revenues growing at a 18% from 2020 ($1.07 billion) to 2026 ($2.9 billion). If UDC actually manages to release a commercial blue PHOLED, the market could even exceed $3 billion.
The majority of OLED material revenues from from TV applications, but the market share of mobile devices is expected to grow and reach almost 50% by 2026.
DSCC says that it expects the advanced monitor category to grow 328% in 2022, to reach 3.6 million panels. OLED monitor shipments will jump 641%, to reach 600,000 units. The growth in OLED shipments will continue, but even in 2026, OLEDs will still take a small part of the market segmented, which is dominated by mini-LED LCDs.
In 2022, DSCC sees QD-OLED panels to grab a 27% market share, while WOLEDs have a lead with a 52% market share. In total, OLEDs will have a 15% market share of the advanced monitor market.
DSCC says that in 2022, MiniLEDs will hold a 49% share in the advanced notebook market, while OLED will hold a 51% share. Looking into the future,MiniLEDs sales will increase slightly, while OLED sales will rise much faster, and by 2026 OLED shipments to the notebook market will reach over 40 million panels, and hold a 75% market share.
Looking at specific vendors, DSCC sees Asus as the leading OLED notebook maker, with a market share of 55%, followed by Lenovo at 17% and both Samsung and HP at 11%. The market ranking will remain pretty constant in 2022 as a whole.
