Counterpoint - DSCC - Page 3

DSCC estimates that OLED revenues in 2023 will be $36.1 billion - down 13% from last year. Just a few months ago DSCC's forecast for 2023 was $38.9 billion. This is the second year that the OLED market is contracting. In terms of shipments, there will be a 5% decrease in 2023. Looking forward to 2024, DSCC sees the market starting to recover, as demand for IT displays, TVs and smartphones will increase.

Looking at specific markets in 2023, DSCC says that OLED smartphone shipments will remain flat, but will drop 11% in revenues - as the demand for higher-end flexible displays is lower than in 2022. The only positive is the foldable display market, where shipments will increase 33% in 2023 compared to last year. 2023 also experiences a big drop in demand for OLED TVs - DSCC sees shipments declining 31% in 2023. The same goes for laptop OLEDs - a 32% decrease in sales in 2023.

DSCC expects the AMOLED stack material market to grow 4% in 2023, to $1.4 billion, and to reach $2.18 billion in 2027, that's a 12% CAGR from 2023 to 2027. In 2022, the market declined by 10%. The forecast does not include any UDC revenues from blue PHOLED materials, which means that if UDC succeeds in commercializing its blue material, revenues could be higher by hundreds of millions of dollars.

DSCC says that demand for OLED TVs will continue to decline in 2023. In 2022, revenues of OLED TV revenues declined by 17%, and in 2023 revenues will decline 3% further. Growth will resume, though, in 2024, and in 2023-2027 the market will grow at a CAGR of 13%.

DSCC says that OLED panel revenues will decline 7% in 2023 (to $38.9 billion), the second consecutive year that the OLED market is seeing a decline in sales. The largest declines will be in the OLED TVs and laptops segments.

The OLED smartphone market will actually grow 4% in unit sales, but revenues will decline 5%. The OLED TV market will decline 29% in 2023 in both revenues and units. OLED laptop unit sales will decline by 15%. All other segments, including AR/VR, automotive and tablets, will grow in sales and revenues in 2023. 

DSCC says that BOE's market share in the flexible (and foldable) smartphone OLED market has risen to 27% in Q1 2023. BOE flexible and foldable OLED panel sales grew 81% in Q1 2023 compared to last  year, as the company enjoys growing sales to Apple, Huawei, Oppo, Realme, Vivo and ZTE. BOE is mostly taking market share from Samsung and LG, while Tianma's market share is also on the rise.

DSCC estimates that flagship smartphone shipments grew 17% in the first quarter, with flexible OLED smartphone shipments growing 18% and foldable ones growing 4%.

DSCC estimates that the OLED market will contract 7% in 2023, by revenues, to reach $38.7 billion. In terms of shipments, there will be a 1% decline from last year.

The two main OLED markets, smartphones and TVs, will both decline - OLED smartphone revenues will decline by 8% in 2023 (shipments will remain the same), while OLED TV panel revenues will drop 15% (12% by shipments).

DSSC says that more smartphone makers will join the foldable phone market in 2023, with 37 new models introduced (up from 19 in 2022) - including new models from Google and OnePlus. DSSC says at least 16 new clamshell phones will be released, at least 20 in-folding type and one new out-folding device.

Looking at foldable smartphone shipments, DSSC says that the market will grow 45% to reach 18.6 million units, as performance increases and price decreases.

DSSC says that 3.1 million foldable smartphone shipped in Q4 2022, a drop of 48% compared to the previous quarter (and 26% compared to Q4 2021). This is the first time that the foldable smartphone market contracted.

DSSC says that the market was "overwhelmed by the launch of the iPhone 14 Series". Worsening global economic conditions also reduced demand. In the full year 2022, 12.9 million foldable phone shipped (a 62% increase over 2021), led by Samsung with a 83% market share.

DSCC says that OLED panel revenues were $12.6 billion in Q4 2022, down 3% from Q4 2021. Shipments declined by 7% compared to last year.

For the full year 2022, revenues reached $41.7 billion, a 1% decrease from 2021. AMOLED for smartphones shipments (units) decreased by 1%, while OLED TV panel shipments decreased by 9%. Some OLED segments grew in 2022 - AR/RV, automotive, monitors, and tablets.

DSCC says that even though the display market is facing difficult market conditions, the automotive displays segment is expected to continue growing, and total shipments (both LCDs and OLEDs) are expected to exceed 200 million panels (an average of over 2 displays per car).

OLEDs are still a small percentage of the market (less than 0.5%, in fact), but OLEDs will gradually penetrate high-end applications for flagship models, as OLED makers adopt flexible and tandem-architecture technologies.