DSCC - Page 5

In recent years we have seen AMOLED displays fall out of favor in the VR market, as most devices have opted for high-end LCDs, due to the better image definition, mostly. According to DSCC, this is set to change next year (in 2023).

Sony has already adopted high density (>800PPI) AMOLED displays in the Playstation VR2, DSCC says that this trend will continue. DSCC also sees OLED microdisplays finally entering the VR market in 2023, with around 15 million such displays shipped in this market by 2024.

DSCC estimates that just over 10 million foldable OLED displays shipped in 2022, and the market is set to grow to 86 million units by 2026 (54% CAGR).

DSCC says that foldable smartphone revenues rose 342% in 2021, and have reached $5.8 billion. The most popular foldable smartphone was the Galaxy Z Flip 3 (51% market share in 2021), followed by the Galaxy Z Fold 3 (26% market share) and the Huawei Mate X2 (6% market share).

Demand for larger mobile OLED displays, for laptops, tablets and monitors is on the rise, and OLED makers (Led by Samsung Display) are planning to establish 8.5-Gen OLED production fabs dedicated for IT panels. The leading maker is

DSCC posted a very interesting article with predictions on this new development in the industry, saying that there are currently 11 different 15K G8.5/G8.6 IT OLED lines under development.

DSCC has released its latest OLED market forecast, and the company forecasts a 8% CAGR revenue growth, with the market reaching $64 billion in revenue in 2026. The growth will be fueled by high demand for laptop, monitor and tablet displays. The smartphone and OLED TV market will also continue to grow.

DSCC sees a 31% CAGR shipment growth for laptop displays, to reach around $2.4 billion in 2026, and a 95% CAGR unit growth for monitor OLED displays, which will reach $1.3 billion in 2026 (up from $200 million in 2022). This is fast growth for monitor OLED displays, but slower than DSCC previously estimated, due to competition for miniLEDs, rigid OLED capacity that will be used for laptops and tablets and lower demand to mirroring display monitors.

DSCC have released their 2021 and 2022 smartphone OLED shipment estimates. In 2021, DSCC says that 644 million smartphone AMOLED displays were shipped, up 28% from 2020. Our of these 644 million panels, 42% were rigid, 55% were flexible and about 2% were foldable.

DSCC says that it has downgraded its forecast for 2022, as both Honor and Huawei will no longer adopt rigid AMOLEDs in smartphones. Total shipments will reach almost 700 million panels, and all of the growth will come from flexible and foldable panels. In fact rigid smartphone OLED shipments are expected to decline in 2022.

Towards the end of 2021 we reported that Apple plans to launch its first AR headset in Q4 2022, powered by dual 4K OLED microdisplays, produced by Sony

According to Ross Young from DSSC, Apple first headset will actually be a VR headset, that uses a foveated display system. The headset will feature three displays - two 4K microLEDs (indeed produced by Sony) and one larger AMOLED display.

DSCC says that Q3 2021 was a record quarter for foldable smartphones - with shipments growing 215% from Q2 2021 and 480% from Q3 2020 to reach 2.6 million units. Samsung Electronics controls the market with a 93% share, followed by Huawei (6%).

DSCC expects the growth to continue and shipments in Q4 will reach almost 4 million units. Looking at specific models, the Galaxy Z Flip 3 has a 60% share, followed by the Galaxy Z Fold 3 with a 23% share.

DSCC posted an interesting article, comparing the production costs of OLED vs mini-LED panels for IT. DSCC estimates that for tablets and notebooks, a tandem structure will be used, and the panels will be based on rigid substrates.

In the chart above you see a production cost comparison, between 2021 and 2025, for 12.9" panels. DSCC looks at two OLED production options: a tandem OLED panel with an LTPO backplane produced in a 6-Gen fab, and a similar panel that uses an Oxide-TFT backplane and produced in a larger 8.5-Gen fab. As you can see, OLED panels are more cost effective, and will remain so throughout the forecast period.

DSCC says that it expects OLED investments (new production capacity) to increase in the IT space, as demand for laptops, tablets and monitors increases and OLED penetration increases. There is much room for growth in this market - DSCC estimates that the current OLED penetration into the IT display market is just 1.4% in 2021. DSCC expects to see fabs focused on the IT markets accounting for 37% of 2022-2025 OLED equipment spending.

Helped by spending in IT markets, 2024 is expected to be the largest year for OLED equipment spending since 2017. Interestingly, DSCC says that OLED spending in China is has slowed due to a lack of penetration, but OLED spending in Korea continues to increase. Korea’s OLED spending is expected to grow by 637% in 2022 and another 50% in 2023 to $4.4B.

DSCC says that 2021 will see strong growth in OLED production. Flexible OLED production glass input is expected to grow by 36% in 2021, while rigid OLED input will grow even stronger at 42%.

The utilization rates at OLED production lines are still relatively low, especially at BOE's flexible OLED lines. As of the end of 2021, flexible OLED utilization rates are around 70%, rigid OLED utilization is at about 77% while OLED TV utilization is higher at around 85%. LG's utilization rates are lower than earlier in 2021, which DSCC says is intentional to support prices