DSCC - Page 3

DSCC says that OLED panel revenues will decline 7% in 2023 (to $38.9 billion), the second consecutive year that the OLED market is seeing a decline in sales. The largest declines will be in the OLED TVs and laptops segments.

The OLED smartphone market will actually grow 4% in unit sales, but revenues will decline 5%. The OLED TV market will decline 29% in 2023 in both revenues and units. OLED laptop unit sales will decline by 15%. All other segments, including AR/VR, automotive and tablets, will grow in sales and revenues in 2023. 

DSCC says that BOE's market share in the flexible (and foldable) smartphone OLED market has risen to 27% in Q1 2023. BOE flexible and foldable OLED panel sales grew 81% in Q1 2023 compared to last  year, as the company enjoys growing sales to Apple, Huawei, Oppo, Realme, Vivo and ZTE. BOE is mostly taking market share from Samsung and LG, while Tianma's market share is also on the rise.

DSCC estimates that flagship smartphone shipments grew 17% in the first quarter, with flexible OLED smartphone shipments growing 18% and foldable ones growing 4%.

DSCC estimates that the OLED market will contract 7% in 2023, by revenues, to reach $38.7 billion. In terms of shipments, there will be a 1% decline from last year.

The two main OLED markets, smartphones and TVs, will both decline - OLED smartphone revenues will decline by 8% in 2023 (shipments will remain the same), while OLED TV panel revenues will drop 15% (12% by shipments).

DSSC says that more smartphone makers will join the foldable phone market in 2023, with 37 new models introduced (up from 19 in 2022) - including new models from Google and OnePlus. DSSC says at least 16 new clamshell phones will be released, at least 20 in-folding type and one new out-folding device.

Looking at foldable smartphone shipments, DSSC says that the market will grow 45% to reach 18.6 million units, as performance increases and price decreases.

DSSC says that 3.1 million foldable smartphone shipped in Q4 2022, a drop of 48% compared to the previous quarter (and 26% compared to Q4 2021). This is the first time that the foldable smartphone market contracted.

DSSC says that the market was "overwhelmed by the launch of the iPhone 14 Series". Worsening global economic conditions also reduced demand. In the full year 2022, 12.9 million foldable phone shipped (a 62% increase over 2021), led by Samsung with a 83% market share.

DSCC says that OLED panel revenues were $12.6 billion in Q4 2022, down 3% from Q4 2021. Shipments declined by 7% compared to last year.

For the full year 2022, revenues reached $41.7 billion, a 1% decrease from 2021. AMOLED for smartphones shipments (units) decreased by 1%, while OLED TV panel shipments decreased by 9%. Some OLED segments grew in 2022 - AR/RV, automotive, monitors, and tablets.

DSCC says that even though the display market is facing difficult market conditions, the automotive displays segment is expected to continue growing, and total shipments (both LCDs and OLEDs) are expected to exceed 200 million panels (an average of over 2 displays per car).

OLEDs are still a small percentage of the market (less than 0.5%, in fact), but OLEDs will gradually penetrate high-end applications for flagship models, as OLED makers adopt flexible and tandem-architecture technologies.

According to DSCC, display fab utilization started to decline in Q2 2022, and this continued - and bottomed out towards the end of 2022. The industry is starting to recover, but the recovery is slower than expected before.

This is true for both LCD and OLED displays, as you can see in the graph above.

Reports from Korea suggest that China-based OLED makers have seen lower utilization rates, as demand for OLED displays is smaller than expected, which is leading the companies to slow down their capacity expansion plans.

The capacity of all China-based OLED makers have risen from 20% of the global OLED market in 2019, to around 40% in 2022. But growth ahead will be slower, and by 2027, the market share of China-based makers will reach 45% of the global market. This data is from DSCC.

DSCC says that 2022 was a disappointing year for VR, as the market did not grow as expected - although it still expects the market to grow quickly in the near future. DSCC sees $942 million in display panel revenues in 2022, growing to $7.3 billion by 2027 (a CAGR of 50.7%).

DSSC sees OLED microdisplays (OLED on Silicon, or SiOLED) leading the market from 2023 onwards, as producers start using these displays in VR headsets - including Apple's upcoming VR headset that will be based on dual 4K OLED microdisplays (in addition to an AMOLED display). Apple's VR headset is expected to be released in 2023.