Update: it turns out that the report was not entirely accurate. Philips thinks that the prices will drop to €10-€20 in two years (by the end of 2013, not the end of 2012).
Philips say that the new €40 million Aachen OLED lighting production line will expand their capacity 10 times - and will enable them to drop the prices significantly. In fact, while prices today are in the range of €70 to €800, by the end of 2012 the cheapest panels will cost €10-€20.
According to Philips, if they can get the price down to €10-€20, this will become a mass market - they want customers to get OLED panels in their local hardware shops. I think that even with 10 times the current capacity, it won't be enough to actually consider this a mass market lighting device, but still it's great to hear that Philips have aggressive targets.
Philips acknowledges that one of the major barrier for adoption will be that OLEDs offer a completely different light source than LEDs and CFLs. They cannot be used as a simple replacement for other kinds of lamps. Philips says that the idea is not to replace the traditional light bulb, but to create an alternative to these old designs.
Comments
It will happen if we (the OLED lighting industry) say it can.
BTW, end of 2012 is too conservative. An aggressive but reachable target is mid-2012.
Indeed that quote was not correct. Philips now say that some larger panels will cost €50, but these won't be the most expensive/largest ones...
I think you're too optimistic... Philips told us that the quote was not true - their target is actually end of 2013...
The question obviously is which panel they are talking about. The smallest panel which Philip is currently offering seems to be the 30x30 mm Pixel White @ 78€. Given increased production capability I guess a price of 20€ at some point next year doesn't seem out of the world.
What I find interesting is this: They also state that their largest panels will be available at 50€ per piece. The largest standard panel which they are currently listing on their website is 74x74 mm. This would result in a price of about 9000 €/m2.
By comparison: The usually overly optimistic DoE roadmap expects the production cost per m2 to be around $1800 in 2012. Add some nice margin and I think the price Philips mentioned doesn't seem unrealistic....