DSCC estimates that the mobile OLED equipment will rebound in 2020 - up 461% in fact to $8.2 billion, after falling 88% in 2019.
In 2020, OLED spending will account for 56% of the total display equipment market spending, basically returning to the levels we saw in 2017-2018.
UBI Research estimates that OLED production capacity will increase from 34.9 million sqm to 68.5 million by 2023. LG Display and Samsung Display are expected to increase production of OLED TV and introduce new 10.5-Gen fabs better suited for 65" TV production.
Mobile OLED production capacity will also grow, but at a slower rate - from 13 million sqm in 2019 to 19.3 million sqm in 2023, mainly driven by Chinese OLED producers that produce flexible smartphone OLED displays mainly for the Chinese domestic market. Korean OLED producers (SDC and LGD) will continue to dominate the market and will retain their ~80% market share in 2023.
UBI Research says that 110 million AMOLED panels were produced and shipped in Q1 2019, a slight decrease of 0.4% from Q1 2018.
The top AMOLED producer is still of course Samsung Display, which produced 82 million units (75% market share). SDC's revenues were $5.09 billion, down from $5.86 billion in Q1 2018.
HiSense launched its Series X OLED TVs in Australia towards the end of 2018, with an initial price tag of $3,500 AUD for the 55" model. According to a new report from Australia, HiSense's OLED TV sales were lower than expected, to the point that HiSense lowered the price to $1,495 to clear its stock.
According to ChannelNews.au HiSense is likely losing money on each TV sold. According to reviews, Hisense's OLED TVs are not as impressive as OLED TVs from LG and Sony, and consumers are preferring to buy LG's OLED TVs as Hisense is not perceived as a premium brand.
Samsung Electronics started to accept pre-orders for the Galaxy Fold a few days ago (April 14th) - and the company says it is already sold out due to "overwhelming demand" and it is no longer taking pre-orders
This is great news, especially as many questioned whether customers will be willing to pay $2,000 for a foldable smartphone. Of course Samsung's foldable OLED production capacity is limited so this demand may not be actually very high.
According to Business Korea, the demand for OLED TVs is increasing, which is helping OLED TV vendors, mainly LG, Sony and Panasonic to increase sales in the premium TV segment.
BK says that in 2018, LG Electronics sold 62.2% of all OLED TVs, followed by Sony (18.9%) and Panasonic (7.7%). Other OLED TV vendors include AOC/Tp-Vision/Philips (5.7%) and Skyworth (2.4%).
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IHS says that recent years have seen a drastic growth in smartwatch shipments - the market grew from 9.4 million units in 2014 to 149 million units in 2018. In just one year, shipments grew 42% from 2017 to 2018.
This rising demand for smartwatches has of course created a rising demand for displays. OLED displays are leading this segment - with around 80% of shipments in 2018 (the rest are mostly LCD displays). AMOLED display shipments were around 42 million and PMOLED shipments reached around 75 million.
UBI Research estimates that the OLED material market will grow to $1.17 billion in 2019, and to $1.87 billion in 2021. The market is expected to reach $2 billion in revenues in 2023.
Interestingly, UBI says that in 2029 70% of the materials will be consumed by Korean companies (LGD and SDC) - and Korea's market share will grow to 75.6% in 2023. This will be driven be soaring consumption of materials for TV production (OLED TV materials will take up 49.7% of the total market in 2023 up from only 21.1% in 2019).
DSCC says that OLED market revenues will grow from $26.5 billion in 2018 to $28.7 billion in 2019 and over $52 billion by 2023. The largest application will remain smartphone displays, but several other applications will generate over $1 billion in 2023 - TVs, tablets, notebooks and monitors. By area of production, TV displays will surpass smartphone displays in 2021.
Samsung is still (and will remain so) the dominant AMOLED display producer, even though its market share will drop from 97% in Q1 2018 to 81% in Q4 2019. In Q1 2019 Visionox surpassed LGD to become the 2nd largest AMOLED producer (but most of Visionox's panels are low-end 5.5-inch panels). DSCC expects LGD to regain its number 2 position in the second half of 2019. BOE is the third player and will remain so following its supply agreement with Huawei.
