Counterpoint - DSCC - Page 6

DSCC posted an interesting article, comparing the production costs of OLED vs mini-LED panels for IT. DSCC estimates that for tablets and notebooks, a tandem structure will be used, and the panels will be based on rigid substrates.

In the chart above you see a production cost comparison, between 2021 and 2025, for 12.9" panels. DSCC looks at two OLED production options: a tandem OLED panel with an LTPO backplane produced in a 6-Gen fab, and a similar panel that uses an Oxide-TFT backplane and produced in a larger 8.5-Gen fab. As you can see, OLED panels are more cost effective, and will remain so throughout the forecast period.

DSCC says that it expects OLED investments (new production capacity) to increase in the IT space, as demand for laptops, tablets and monitors increases and OLED penetration increases. There is much room for growth in this market - DSCC estimates that the current OLED penetration into the IT display market is just 1.4% in 2021. DSCC expects to see fabs focused on the IT markets accounting for 37% of 2022-2025 OLED equipment spending.

Helped by spending in IT markets, 2024 is expected to be the largest year for OLED equipment spending since 2017. Interestingly, DSCC says that OLED spending in China is has slowed due to a lack of penetration, but OLED spending in Korea continues to increase. Korea’s OLED spending is expected to grow by 637% in 2022 and another 50% in 2023 to $4.4B.

DSCC says that 2021 will see strong growth in OLED production. Flexible OLED production glass input is expected to grow by 36% in 2021, while rigid OLED input will grow even stronger at 42%.

The utilization rates at OLED production lines are still relatively low, especially at BOE's flexible OLED lines. As of the end of 2021, flexible OLED utilization rates are around 70%, rigid OLED utilization is at about 77% while OLED TV utilization is higher at around 85%. LG's utilization rates are lower than earlier in 2021, which DSCC says is intentional to support prices

DSCC says that LG Display continues to improve the production at its 8.5-Gen WOLED TV fab in Guangzhou, and it finally managed to have the production cost in China be lower than a comparable OLED TV made in Korea.

DSCC estimates that the production cost in China by the end of 2021 will be 13-14% lower than that of LG's Korea fabs.

DSCC released its later OLED market forecasts, which now includes 2026. DSCC sees the rate of OLED market growth decelerating, with revenues reaching just over $60 billion in 2026.

Most of the growth in the next 5 years, according to DSCC, will come from new IT applications: OLED displays for monitors, laptops and tablets.

DSCC says that demand for Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold3 and the Galaxy Z Flip 3 is very strong in Korea, with pre-orders in the first seven days reaching over 900,000 units. Demand in India is strong as well.

DSCC sees Samsung's foldable OLED production volume up dramatically from July compared to last year. In fact the volume in July was higher than the combined volume of the production in January-July 2021. From August 2021, DSCC sees production of over 1 million foldablephones per month.

DSCC says that OLED shipments in the second quarter of 2021 rose 36% over last year (but decreased 10% compared to Q1 2021). New smartphone launches by Samsung, Apple and Google will drive the growth at the second half of 2021.

Samsung Display is still the leading smartphone OLED producer, with a market share of 73.5% in Q2 2021. BOE was at second place with a 6.7% share.

DSCC updated its AMOLED material market forecast, saying that the market will reach $1.4 billion in 2021 (up 32% from 2020), and grow at a 16% CAGR from 2019 ($927 million) to 2025, to reach $2.18 billion by 2025.

DSCC takes a look into the material cost for LG Display's WOLED TV panels. LGD will likely manage to implement incremental improvements in material utilization and price, which will enable the company to almost halve the material cost of its TV panels- from $88.14 per sqm in 2019 to $47.19 per sqm by 2025.

DSCC has published its latest OLED market forecast. The company raised its 2021 revenue expectations by 9% (to $42.5 billion) as it sees increased smartphone display shipments and higher OLED laptop shipments.

DSCC also increased its long term OLED revenue forecast by 11% to $60.6 billion by 2025. This is driven, again, by higher smartphone AMOLED shipments and increased adoption in IT markets (tablets, laptops and monitors).

DSCC says that smartphone OLED shipments have increased around 50% in Q1 2021 compared to last year, and the growth will continue - around 30% in Q2 2021 and over 40% in Q3.

The market share of flexible AMOLEDs out of all OLEDs (rigid + flexible) continues to rise, and in Q1 2021 77% of all smartphone OLED displays were flexible ones. Samsung is still the largest producer by far, holding a 75% market share in Q1 2021. LG Display holds a 8% share and BOE 6%.