OLED Smartphones

UBI Research says that it expects the total shipments of OLED emitting materials to reach 131 tons in 2024. The market will grow to 177 tons by 2028, a CAGR of 7.9%. In terms of revenues, the market will grow from $2.4 billion in 2024 to $2.7 billion in 2028.

UBI says that demand for OLED displays is on the rise, fueled by increased adoption in entry-level phones and IT products. 

According to reports from China, Samsung Display established a new R&D team dedicated to develop OLED products for Apple. The so-called "A Team" is part of the Giheung Research Institute in Yongin, Korea.

This is an interesting move by SDC. Apple is an extremely important customer for Samsung Display, of course, and up until recently SDC has been the leading supplier of OLED displays for Apple - winning the majority of orders for iPhone AMOLEDs. But now that Apple is starting to adopt OLEDs in IT products (starting with tablets) things are changing.

In 2022, Japan Display (JDI) announced that it has developed a "historic breakthrough in display technology" - a new OLED deposition process which they refer to as eLEAP, that is said to be cost effective and can be used to create freeform OLEDs that are brighter, more efficient, and longer lasting compared to OLEDs produced using mask evaporation (FMM).

JDI is planning to establish a 8.7-Gen eLEAP fab in China, and it is also building a smaller-scale 6-Gen eLEAP production line in Mobara, Japan. The company announced that the 6-Gen Mobara fab is advancing ahead of schedule, and production of eLEAP panels will begin before the end of 2024. JDI developed 14" laptop panels that are three times brighter than other OLEDs (at 1,600 nits), and is also targeting smartwatches, smartphones and automotive displays. JDI is also looking into adopting a tandem structure, to increase brightness even further to 3,000 nits.

Apple was the first company to develop LTPO backplanes and it adopted this innovative and energy-efficient backplane technology back in 2018 in the Watch Series 4. LTPO combines Oxide-TFT and LTPS, by using the IGZO in some of the switching TFTs and LTPS in the remaining switching TFTs and all the driving TFTs. LTPO can reduce the power consumption by 5-15%, and enables variable refresh rate.

According to reports from Korea, Apple developed its 2nd-Gen LTPO backplane technology, that uses the IGZO in all the driving TFTs, and uses LTPS only in the remaining switching TFTs. This leads to higher efficiency compared to the first-generation LTPO backplane.

UBI Research released its latest foldable OLED shipments forecast, saying that it expects the market to grow from 27.4 million units in 2024 to 52.7 million 2028.

The market is dominated by Samsung Display, which shipped 13.4 million foldable OLEDs in 2023, and holds a 61% market. Samsung is followed by BOE (6.2 million, growing 3X from 2022), TCL CSOT (1.1 million) and Visionox (1.1 million). UBI expects Samsung Display to remain the clear leader in this market as it is the sole supplier to Samsung Electronics - and it is also expected that Samsung will be the exclusive supplier to Apple's future foldable iPhones.

A report from China suggests that Samsung will not produce any AMOLEDs for the upcoming Apple iPhone SE 4, as the Korean maker asked for around $30 per unit (6.1-inch) which was too high for Apple. Apple apparantly wanted to pay only $25, and it is estimated that BOE will supply most of the units, with some orders perhaps going to Tianma.

According to reports, Samsung estimated that it will not be able to make a profit in this project and decided to stop the negotiations when Apple insisted on a low price.

According to reports, BOE has commercialized a new tandem OLED architecture, that enabled an improvement of 40% in power consumption and a 600% increase in display lifetime. 

As you can see from the teaser poster above, Chinese smartphone maker Honor will release the first phone to adopt the new panel, the Honor Magic 6 Ultimate, next week on March 18th.

Interesting rumors from China suggest that Huawei is planning to release the industry's first smartphone that sports a tri-foldable OLED. When fully open, the device will sport a 10" display, which means it will double as a full tablet and a smartphone. Huawei's plan is to release it in the first half of 2024.

Samsung tri-folding AMOLED prototype

The rumors continue to suggest that Samsung Electronics noticed Huawei's plan, and the Korean smartphone maker may decide to be the first on the market with a novel device, launching its own tri-folding phone - or perhaps even the first rollable phone. 

LG Display announced its financial results for Q4 2023, with an operating profit of almost $100 million - after 7 quarters of losses. LGD says that demand for both its smartphone displays and WOLED panels (TVs and monitors) has increased. OLED revenues amounted to 57% of the company's total revenues during the quarter. 

LG Display says that it expects market volatility to continue in 2024, due to prolonged unstable macroeconomic conditions. The company will be "strengthening the competitiveness of its OLED businesses", and it expects OLED panel shipments to grow 20% in 2024 compared to 2023. In the upcoming Q1 2024 quarter analysts expected earnings to weaken due to low seasonal demand.

According to reports in China, strong demand for flexible AMOLED panels for high-end smartphones, have resulted in an increase of panel price. This has caused smartphone makers to adopt more rigid AMOLED panels in their budget smartphones.

The report suggests that Samsung Display is especially enjoying an increase in sales of its rigid AMOLED panels to smartphone makers in China - mainly OPPO, vivo, and Xiaomi. These smartphone makers are replacing LCD displays with Samsung's rigid AMOLEDs - as the price difference is currently quite small.