Last week we posted about Nanomarket's three OLED lighting scenarios (which are mass adoption, niche market and the death of OLED lighting). Nanomarkets are still optimistic about the OLED lighting market, but they do not see mass adoption coming soon. In fact, in a recent blog post they say that no OLED lighting takeoff will happen till 2017. Previously they estimated that it may start in 2015.
This is partly a technical issue (everybody still suffers from low yields) but mostly because they do not see any company investing in real mass production facilities. Nanomarkets are looking for an OLED lighting champion - and they do not see one appearing any time soon. The do not see the OLED lighting revenues to reach more than a few hundred million dollars annually for quite a few more years, and in this case it does not make sense to invest billions in mass production facilities...
